Pokémon 30th Celebration Pull Rates & Odds Calculator

30th Celebration pull rates

The table lists the estimated rate for each rarity, the rate for one specific card of that rarity, the chance of at least one hit in a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, and the packs needed for a 50% and a 90% chance. Source: Insider Gaming / TCGplayer community opening data, September 2026. These are not official figures.

How the math works

Every booster pack is treated as an independent draw with the same chance p of containing the card you want. A rate of 1 in 19 means p = 1 ÷ 19. The chance of missing in one pack is 1 − p, the chance of missing in n packs in a row is (1 − p)ⁿ, and so the chance of at least one hit is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. The expected number of hits is simply n × p, and the packs needed for a target chance c is log(1 − c) ÷ log(1 − p), rounded up.

Example: for a Special Illustration Rare in an Elite Trainer Box, 1 − (1 − 1/19)⁹ = 38.5%. For a Futuristic Rare (1 in 99) the same box gives 8.7%.

Why “1 in 19” is not a guarantee

“1 in 19” is an average over a very large number of packs, not a promise about any 19 packs in a row. Open exactly 19 packs and you have a 64.2% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare, which leaves a 35.8% chance of none at all. Packs have no memory: after 19 misses the next pack is still 1 in 19. To be 90% sure you need 43 packs, and 99% takes 86. The same pattern holds for every rate: opening N packs at 1 in N gives roughly a 63% to 68% chance.

Chasing a card versus buying the single

Enter a price per pack and the calculator turns odds into money. One specific Special Illustration Rare is about 1 in 190 packs, so a 50% chance takes 132 packs. At the Elite Trainer Box MSRP of $5.55 per pack that is $733.19 for a coin flip, while even the most expensive Special Illustration Rare in the set was priced at $211.00 or less as a single on Sep 30, 2026. RGB Mew is the extreme case: a 50% chance at any of the three takes about 2,816 packs, or $15,641 at MSRP, against a market price of $3,750 to $4,000.

Opened packs do return other cards, so the comparison is not one to one, but for a single chase card buying it outright is almost always cheaper than chasing it. Check current card prices in the 30th Celebration card list, and make sure your price per pack is fair with the 30th Celebration price guide. For odds in the video games, see the shiny odds calculator. Data last checked on Oct 2, 2026.

Pokémon and Pokémon character names are trademarks of Nintendo, Creatures Inc. and GAME FREAK inc. CalcBrew is an independent fan tool and is not affiliated with or endorsed by them or The Pokémon Company.

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