Shiny Odds Calculator

Shiny odds for every method

The table lists every method in the calculator with its number of rolls, the exact odds per encounter and the encounters needed for a 50% and a 90% chance of at least one shiny. Rows marked with ≈ are estimates or disputed values, not official numbers.

How shiny rolls stack

The games do not add odds together. Each bonus gives the game extra attempts (rolls) at the base rate, and the Pokémon is shiny if any roll succeeds. The chance per encounter is therefore 1 − (4095/4096)^rolls, or 1 − (8191/8192)^rolls in Generations 2 to 5. Three rolls give 1 in 1,365.67, a hair worse than the 3/4096 (1 in 1,365.33) shortcut that is often quoted, because two rolls can succeed at once. The difference is too small to notice, but it is why this calculator shows 1 in 1,366 for the Shiny Charm.

Over a whole hunt the same rule applies one level up: the chance of at least one shiny in n encounters is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, where p is the chance per encounter. Solving for n gives the encounters needed for a target chance: n = ln(1 − target) ÷ ln(1 − p). That is roughly 0.69 × the odds number for 50%, 2.3 × for 90% and 4.6 × for 99%.

Going over odds

“Odds” in shiny hunting means the average hunt length: 4,096 encounters at full odds. It is not a deadline. Only about 63% of hunts are finished by that point; roughly 37% go over odds, 13.5% pass twice the odds and 5% pass three times the odds. And because each encounter is independent, nothing accumulates. A hunter at 10,000 encounters has exactly the same chance on the next encounter as someone who started a minute ago. The useful question is not “am I due?” but “how many more encounters am I willing to do?”, and the answer to that never depends on the past.

A short history of shiny odds

Shiny Pokémon arrived in Gold and Silver (Generation 2), where a Pokémon’s hidden stat values decided whether it was shiny, at a rate of 1 in 8,192. Generations 3 to 5 moved the check to the personality value and the Trainer ID but kept 1 in 8,192. Diamond and Pearl introduced the Masuda Method, named after Game Freak’s Junichi Masuda, and Black 2 and White 2 added the Shiny Charm. X and Y (Generation 6) doubled the base rate to 1 in 4,096, where it has stayed since, including Sword and Shield, Legends: Arceus, Scarlet and Violet and Legends: Z-A.

Shiny hunting tips

• Check that the target can be shiny at all. Some legendary, gift and event Pokémon are shiny locked, and no number of resets changes that.
• Get the Shiny Charm first. It is a permanent bonus that stacks with almost every other method.
• Speed matters as much as odds. A method with 1 in 1,366 at 10 seconds per encounter beats 1 in 683 at 30 seconds. Enter your seconds per encounter above to compare.
• Plan around the 90% count, not the odds number. If the 90% time is more than you want to spend, pick a faster method.
• Keep an honest count. A counter makes the hunt easier to pause and resume, and it tells you how unusual a long hunt really is.

Caught it? Work out its final stats with the Pokémon stat calculator and nature chart, check its matchups in the Pokémon type chart, or let the random Pokémon generator choose your next shiny target.

Sources and trademark note

Roll counts were checked in October 2026 against Serebii.net and published datamining results for each game. Pokémon GO rates are community estimates, because Niantic does not publish them.

Pokémon and Pokémon character names are trademarks of Nintendo, Creatures Inc. and GAME FREAK inc. CalcBrew is an independent fan tool and is not affiliated with or endorsed by them or The Pokémon Company.

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